Large Shifts in Immigrant Mix Projected

January 25, 2005

Contact: Elaine Lapriore (213) 740-7985
email: lapriore@usc.edu

EMBARGOED UNTIL 10:30 A.M., JAN. 25, 2005

PRESS CONFERENCE
10:30 A.M., Jan. 25, 2005
State Capitol Building, 10th and L Streets, Sacramento

A new USC study focuses on the long-term impact of immigration in California, showing the growth of a Latino population with rising levels of education, English use and voter participation.

A groundbreaking forecast from the University of Southern California is the first to show the immigrant dimensions of California’s population in 2030.

Large increases in the projected number of immigrants who have lived in the United States for at least 20 years and the second-generation children of immigrants indicate major rises in education, English use and voter participation among the Latino population.

USC’s California Demographic Futures forecast covers 1980 to 2030 and focuses on the growth and change of the foreign-born population and its native-born children, the “second generation.”

The report can be viewed at http://www.usc.edu/schools/sppd/futures.

“We stand at the midpoint of a 50-year span during which the California population is being rapidly transformed,” said Dowell Myers, professor in the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development and co-author of the study.

“Immigrants and their children are California’s future consumers, taxpayers and political leaders, so our population projections serve a vital public purpose,” Myers said. “They provide a critical information base for policy discussions and, we hope and expect, will also contribute to better public policy results.”

“It’s almost impossible to think about population and California without also thinking about immigration,” said John Pitkin, co-author of the study and a senior research associate in the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development. “Our projections are the first to reveal the immigrant dimensions that are hidden in the totals of previous projections.”

These findings, based on projected immigration at the current level, include:

  • The growth of California’s foreign-born population is slowing. Immigrants surged from 15.1 percent of the state’s population in 1980 to 27.0 percent in 2005, but are projected to rise to just 29.9 percent in 2030.
  • The growth of the second generation – children of immigrants – is accelerating. Among children ages 5 to 14 today, only 9.6 percent are foreign born: 54.4 percent are third generation, and 36 percent are second generation (more than double the 1980 share). Among adults ages 25 to 34, only 5.6 percent were second generation in 1980, rising to 13.1 percent today and 26.7 percent in 2030.
  • Growth in the working-age population will shift from being primarily immigrant driven (66.9%) to the California-born children of immigrants (59.5%). By 2030, Latinos are projected to account for 90.9 percent of the growth in working-age population. Many of these future employees are in school today.
  • Immigrants are settling for longer periods of time and, as a population, are aging; recent arrivals make up a progressively smaller portion of the foreign born. Among Latinos, the average length of U.S. residence of the foreign born rose from 12.1 years in 1980 to 14.6 in 2005 and is projected to rise to 22.5 years in 2030. Among Asians, the comparable figures are 10.0, 22.4 and 25.5 years.
  • By 2030, a much larger portion of young adult Latinos will be long settled or second generation, which should lead to gains in graduation rates, health insurance access, voting and English dominance.
  • At present, only 37.1 percent of recent immigrants are likely to be high school graduates, but this share rises to 61.6 percent of those who have lived in the U.S. for 20 or more years, and to 83.5 percent among the second generation.
  • Only 31.4 percent of recent immigrants are reported to have health insurance, but this share rises to 64.9 percent of residents of 20 or more years, and to 72.2 percent among the second generation.
  • Among California Latinos age 25 to 34, only 0.8 percent of recent immigrants are likely to have voted. This share rises to 14.5 percent of residents of 20 or more years, and to 39.8 percent among the second generation.
  • Only 2 percent of recent Latino immigrants are likely to have English as their dominant language: This share rises to 10 percent of those who have resided in the U.S. for 20 or more years, 47 percent among the second generation and 78 percent in the third. By 2030, based on the longer residency of Latinos and the growing second generation, the expected overall share that is English dominant must be expected to rise substantially, Myers said.

    The California Department of Finance projects the state’s population to be 46.8 percent Latino in 2030. California’s foreign-born population has grown rapidly for more than a quarter-century and has more immigrants than any other state. The 2000 census counted 26.2 percent of its population as foreign born.

    But the Golden State’s draw has peaked. As immigrants migrate to other parts of the U.S., California’s projections are a portent of immigration’s impact in communities across the country.

    “The immigration wave concentrated in California first before spreading nationwide, so California is testing the future for other states,” Myers said. “All can benefit from understanding California’s demographic transition and watching us respond effectively.”

    IMMIGRATION.EL

  • Large Shifts in Immigrant Mix Projected

    January 25, 2005

    Contact: Elaine Lapriore (213) 740-7985
    email: lapriore@usc.edu

    EMBARGOED UNTIL 10:30 A.M., JAN. 25, 2005

    PRESS CONFERENCE
    10:30 A.M., Jan. 25, 2005
    State Capitol Building, 10th and L Streets, Sacramento

    A new USC study focuses on the long-term impact of immigration in California, showing the growth of a Latino population with rising levels of education, English use and voter participation.

    A groundbreaking forecast from the University of Southern California is the first to show the immigrant dimensions of California’s population in 2030.

    Large increases in the projected number of immigrants who have lived in the United States for at least 20 years and the second-generation children of immigrants indicate major rises in education, English use and voter participation among the Latino population.

    USC’s California Demographic Futures forecast covers 1980 to 2030 and focuses on the growth and change of the foreign-born population and its native-born children, the “second generation.”

    The report can be viewed at http://www.usc.edu/schools/sppd/futures.

    “We stand at the midpoint of a 50-year span during which the California population is being rapidly transformed,” said Dowell Myers, professor in the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development and co-author of the study.

    “Immigrants and their children are California’s future consumers, taxpayers and political leaders, so our population projections serve a vital public purpose,” Myers said. “They provide a critical information base for policy discussions and, we hope and expect, will also contribute to better public policy results.”

    “It’s almost impossible to think about population and California without also thinking about immigration,” said John Pitkin, co-author of the study and a senior research associate in the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development. “Our projections are the first to reveal the immigrant dimensions that are hidden in the totals of previous projections.”

    These findings, based on projected immigration at the current level, include:

  • The growth of California’s foreign-born population is slowing. Immigrants surged from 15.1 percent of the state’s population in 1980 to 27.0 percent in 2005, but are projected to rise to just 29.9 percent in 2030.
  • The growth of the second generation – children of immigrants – is accelerating. Among children ages 5 to 14 today, only 9.6 percent are foreign born: 54.4 percent are third generation, and 36 percent are second generation (more than double the 1980 share). Among adults ages 25 to 34, only 5.6 percent were second generation in 1980, rising to 13.1 percent today and 26.7 percent in 2030.
  • Growth in the working-age population will shift from being primarily immigrant driven (66.9%) to the California-born children of immigrants (59.5%). By 2030, Latinos are projected to account for 90.9 percent of the growth in working-age population. Many of these future employees are in school today.
  • Immigrants are settling for longer periods of time and, as a population, are aging; recent arrivals make up a progressively smaller portion of the foreign born. Among Latinos, the average length of U.S. residence of the foreign born rose from 12.1 years in 1980 to 14.6 in 2005 and is projected to rise to 22.5 years in 2030. Among Asians, the comparable figures are 10.0, 22.4 and 25.5 years.
  • By 2030, a much larger portion of young adult Latinos will be long settled or second generation, which should lead to gains in graduation rates, health insurance access, voting and English dominance.
  • At present, only 37.1 percent of recent immigrants are likely to be high school graduates, but this share rises to 61.6 percent of those who have lived in the U.S. for 20 or more years, and to 83.5 percent among the second generation.
  • Only 31.4 percent of recent immigrants are reported to have health insurance, but this share rises to 64.9 percent of residents of 20 or more years, and to 72.2 percent among the second generation.
  • Among California Latinos age 25 to 34, only 0.8 percent of recent immigrants are likely to have voted. This share rises to 14.5 percent of residents of 20 or more years, and to 39.8 percent among the second generation.
  • Only 2 percent of recent Latino immigrants are likely to have English as their dominant language: This share rises to 10 percent of those who have resided in the U.S. for 20 or more years, 47 percent among the second generation and 78 percent in the third. By 2030, based on the longer residency of Latinos and the growing second generation, the expected overall share that is English dominant must be expected to rise substantially, Myers said.

    The California Department of Finance projects the state’s population to be 46.8 percent Latino in 2030. California’s foreign-born population has grown rapidly for more than a quarter-century and has more immigrants than any other state. The 2000 census counted 26.2 percent of its population as foreign born.

    But the Golden State’s draw has peaked. As immigrants migrate to other parts of the U.S., California’s projections are a portent of immigration’s impact in communities across the country.

    “The immigration wave concentrated in California first before spreading nationwide, so California is testing the future for other states,” Myers said. “All can benefit from understanding California’s demographic transition and watching us respond effectively.”

    IMMIGRATION.EL