Tensions between Russia, the United States and Western Europe may have plateaued with the announcement that Russia began withdrawing troops from the Ukrainian border, but the next stage in the conflict is already taking place — online. USC cybersecurity and international relations experts chime in on the latest developments in the conflict and advise some precautions consumers might take in case of a cyberattack.
Contact: Paul McQuiston, paulmcq@usc.edu or (323) 527-7770
“It is unlikely that Russia would take credit for such an attack, likely putting forth the narrative that independent hacker groups were motivated on their own to conduct such attacks.”
Clifford Neuman is director of the USC Center for Computer Systems Security and a researcher at the USC Information Sciences Institute. He is also a computer science professor at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering.
Contact: bcn@isi.edu
“The average consumer doesn’t need to panic, but there are some basic measures we should all be taking, such as using stronger passwords and keeping the software and operating systems on our devices up to date.”
Bhaskar Krishnamachari, professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Computer Science at USC Viterbi School of Engineering, is director of the USC Viterbi Center for Cyber-Physical Systems and the Internet of Things.
Contact: bkrishna@usc.edu
“For the first time in a month there are hopeful signs Russia is making some modest moves to deescalate. But we still don’t know if the sides can forge a compromise or not. If not, the impasse is unresolved: the U.S. insistence that Ukraine can join NATO, and Russian insistence that it must not.
“If there is no compromise, no deal satisfying both NATO and Russian security, then Putin could shift tactics and do something even more serious than threatening war. Russia could recognize the independence of the Donbas, the Russian-majority separatist region in Eastern Ukraine. That would infuriate Western Ukrainians, and NATO would call it dismembering Ukraine. But Russia would say ‘if you won’t agree to keep Ukraine out of NATO, then we will build a buffer zone here.’
“Russia wouldn’t have to annex the Donbas as they did Crimea, they could simply recognize it as independent and help it build a stronger military and borders from the rest of Ukraine. And they will say, ‘You backed Kosovo secession from Serbia, so we are backing Donbas secession from Ukraine.’
“We are already in a Cold War with Russia, but this would make it worse. Sanctions will hurt our European allies as well as Russia, but Russia can turn to China for help while few Americans want to sacrifice for Europe.”
Robert English is an associate professor of International Foreign Policy and Defense Analysis at the USC School of International Relations in the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.
Contact: renglish@usc.edu
“Putin has backed himself into a corner. He made demands on NATO that, while sincere on his part, had no chance of being met. He is impetuous, so anything is possible, but he has absolutely no reason to invade Ukraine. Who would sign up for an insurgency?
“The issue is whether he feels he has to do something. I’m betting that time, plus perhaps some gestures toward his desires — like Ukraine saying it has no intention to join NATO — will let the whole affair fizzle out. Germany is central because it is the most important U.S. ally in Europe but one very dependent on Russian gas. The Nord Stream II pipeline project is a very big deal for it, so the last thing it wants is for that to be lost in sanctions.
“Russia and China have been pushed together by their common adversary, the U.S., but I’ve thought there are sharp limits on their cooperation, especially that in any alliance, Putin would be the junior partner, which seems no part of his imaginings.”
Gregory F. Treverton is professor of the Practice of International Relations and Spatial Sciences at USC Dornsife’s Spatial Science Institute. He was the chairperson of the U.S. National Intelligence Council from 2014-2017.
Contact: treverto@usc.edu
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